Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 58.03%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 21.33% and a draw had a probability of 20.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.35%) and 1-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (5.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.