Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.86%) and 2-0 (5.67%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (8.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.