Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 27.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-0 (8.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%).