Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.59%) and 1-0 (5.4%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.