Australian A-League Gameweek 19
Victory
Feb 27, 2026 8.35am
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Adelaide United
  • Keegan Jelacic 26' goal
  • Xavier Stella 55' yellowcard
  • Nikos Vergos 66' yellowcard
  • Clarismario 66' yellowcard
  • Matthew Grimaldi 66' yellowcard
  • Reno Piscopo 79' yellowcard
  • goal Yaya Dukuly 35'
  • yellowcard Luke Duzel 71'
  • yellowcard Brody Burkitt 77'
  • yellowcard Ben Folami 85'
  • yellowcard Panashe Madanha 86'
  • yellowcard Yaya Dukuly 86'

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 8.35am
Melbourne City 1 - 3 Victory
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Nikolaos Vergos

Adelaide United

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Feb 20, 2026 8.35am
Adelaide United 4 - 0 Perth Glory
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Luka Jovanovic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.66%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 29.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.

Result

Melbourne Victory 47.66% ▲ (+0.05)
Draw 22.93% ▼ (-0.04)
Adelaide United 29.38% ▼ (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.05%

Goals

Over 1.5 82.97% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 17.03% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 62.31% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 2.5 37.69% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 39.89% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 3.5 60.11% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 4.5 24.69% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 4.5 75.31% ▼ (-0.10)

First Half Winner

Melbourne Victory 39.62% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 37.11% ▼ (-0.01)
Adelaide United 23.27% ▼ (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Melbourne Victory 58.41% ▲ (+0.03)
No Goal 4.1% ▼ (-0.04)
Adelaide United 37.49%

Corners

Over 8 66.6% ▼ (-0.07)
Equal 8 10.21%
Under 8 23.19% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 9 55.43% ▼ (-0.07)
Equal 9 11.16%
Under 9 33.4% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 10.5 44.24% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 10.5 55.76% ▲ (+0.05)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 1.5 51.67% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 48.33% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 26.77% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 2.5 73.23% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 3.5 11.21% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 3.5 88.79% ▼ (-0.06)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5 66.83% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 0.5 33.17% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 1.5 36.29% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 63.71% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 14.88% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 85.12% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 5.02%
Under 3.5 94.98%

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 47.65%
Draw 22.93%
Adelaide United 29.38%
Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 9.11% ▼ (-0.05)
1-0 @ 7.46% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.45% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.64% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 4.19% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.87% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 10.93% ▲ (+0.07)
Total : 47.65%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.36% ▼ (-0.05)
2-2 @ 6.33% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.04)
3-3 @ 1.86% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.93%
Adelaide United
1-2 @ 7.34% ▼ (-0.03)
0-1 @ 5.43% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.87% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.22%
2-3 @ 3.01%
0-3 @ 1.77%
Other @ 4.74%
Total : 29.38%

Head to Head

Australian A-League Gameweek 13
Adelaide United
Jan 17, 2026 8.35am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Coopers Stadium
Victory
  • Craig Goodwin 6' goal
  • Joey Garuccio 67' yellowcard
  • Joey Garuccio 68' yellowcard
  • 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Juan Muniz 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Panashe Madanha 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Juan Muñiz 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Ryan Kitto 90'+7' goal
  • yellowcard Jing Reec 67'
  • yellowcard Matthew Grimaldi 67'
  • yellowcard Keegan Jelacic 67'
  • goal Matthew Grimaldi 75'
  • yellowcard Reno Piscopo 78'
  • yellowcard Xavier Stella 90'+3'
  • yellowcard 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Juan Mata 90'+3'
Australian A-League
Victory
Dec 13, 2025 8.35am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
Adelaide United
  • Nikolaos Vergos 24' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 46' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 48' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luke Duzel 73'
  • goal Dylan Pierias 86'
Australian A-League Gameweek 24
Victory
Mar 29, 2025 8.35am
5
3
HT : 4 2
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Adelaide United
  • Daniel Arzani 29' goal
  • Daniel Arzani 29' goal
  • Nishan Velupillay 39' goal
  • Nishan Velupillay 39' goal
  • Daniel Arzani 71' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 78' yellowcard
  • Nikolaos Vergos 88' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 90' goal
  • Alexander Badolato 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Jonny Yull 12'
  • goal Jonny Yull 12'
  • goal Archie Goodwin 47'
  • yellowcard Panagiotis Kikianis 50'
  • goal Zach Clough 56'
  • yellowcard Zach Clough 87'
Australian A-League Gameweek 15
Adelaide United
Jan 18, 2025 8.35am
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Coopers Stadium
Victory
  • Stefan Mauk 31' goal
  • Roderick Miranda 45'+1' goal
  • Ben Folami 48' yellowcard
  • Ethan Alagich 71' goal
  • goal Ryan Teague 18'
  • goal Clarismario Santos Rodrigus 66'
Australian A-League Gameweek 20
Adelaide United
Mar 9, 2024 9.15am
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Coopers Stadium
Victory
  • Nestory Irankunda 51' goal
  • Nick Ansell 55' yellowcard
  • goal Bruno Fornaroli 33'
  • goal Bruno Fornaroli 57'
  • yellowcard Roderick Miranda 87'
  • yellowcard Paul Izzo 90'+7'
Australian A-League Gameweek 10
Victory
Dec 30, 2023 8.45am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT AAMI Park
Adelaide United
  • Bruno Fornaroli 39' goal
  • Zinedine Machach 73' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 88' yellowcard
  • Bruno Fornaroli 90' goal
  • yellowcard A. Popovic 62'
  • yellowcard Alexandar Popovic 62'
  • yellowcard Javi Lopez 68'
  • yellowcard Isaias Sanchez 71'

Form Data

Melbourne City 1 - 3 Victory
Victory 1 - 1 Brisbane Roar
Wellington 2 - 3 Victory
Central Coast 1 - 0 Victory
Victory 4 - 0 Sydney FC
Adelaide United 2 - 1 Victory
Adelaide United 4 - 0 Perth Glory
Sydney FC 1 - 2 Adelaide United
Adelaide United 2 - 3 Newcastle Jets
Adelaide United 1 - 1 Macarthur
Brisbane Roar 2 - 3 Adelaide United
Adelaide United 2 - 1 Victory