Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.13%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 0-1 (7.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%).