Australian A-League Gameweek 21
Mar 15, 2026 8.00am
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 7, 2026 8.35am
Sydney FC 2 - 2 Victory
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Nikolaos Vergos

Macarthur

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 4, 2026 8.00am
Macarthur 1 - 3 Central Coast
Goals scored
25
Top scorer
Harry Sawyer

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.06%. A win for Macarthur has a probability of 29.05% and a draw has a probability of 24.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Macarthur win is 0-1 (7.53%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.53%).

Result

Melbourne Victory 46.06% (+0.04)
Draw 24.89%
Macarthur 29.05% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.64% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.27% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 23.73% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 53.1% (+0.10)
Under 2.5 46.87% (-0.13)
Over 3.5 31.63% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 68.37% (-0.09)
Over 4.5 18.29% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 81.71% (-0.09)

First Half Winner

Melbourne Victory 35.72% (+0.07)
Draw 39.44% (-0.03)
Macarthur 24.84% (-0.04)

Team To Score First

Melbourne Victory 53.33% (+0.11)
No Goal 6.38% (-0.04)
Macarthur 40.29% (-0.08)

Corners

Over 8 63.51% (-0.04)
Equal 8 10.75% (+0.02)
Under 8 25.74% (+0.02)
Over 9 52.04% (-0.08)
Equal 9 11.47% (+0.03)
Under 9 36.49% (+0.04)
Over 10.5 40.83% (-0.08)
Under 10.5 59.17% (+0.08)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 1.5 45.61% (+0.12)
Under 1.5 54.39% (-0.12)
Over 2.5 21.16% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 78.84% (-0.10)
Over 3.5 7.97% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 92.03% (-0.04)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5 64.93% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 35.07% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 31.75% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 68.25% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 11.66% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 88.34% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 3.59% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 96.41% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 46.06%
Draw 24.89%
Macarthur 29.05%
Melbourne Victory
1-0 @ 9.82% (-0.03)
2-1 @ 9.18% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 7.27%
3-1 @ 4.94% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.77% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.25% (+0.01)
Other @ 7.83% (+0.04)
Total : 46.06%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.53%
0-0 @ 6.38% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 5.61% (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.23% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.14% (+0.02)
Total : 24.89%
Macarthur
0-1 @ 7.53% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 6.86% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.37% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.8%
2-3 @ 2.39% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.65% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 29.05%

Head to Head

Australian A-League
Dec 5, 2025 8.35am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Dong-Won Ji 55' yellowcard
  • 55' yellowcard
  • Sime Grzan 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joshua Inserra 28'
Australian A-League Gameweek 28
Apr 25, 2025 10.35am
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Campbelltown Stadium
  • Luke Brattan 56' yellowcard
  • Chris Ikonomidis 68' goal
  • goal Ryan Teague 4'
  • yellowcard Daniel Arzani 15'
  • yellowcard Kasey Bos 32'
  • goal Kasey Bos 36'
  • yellowcard Lachlan Jackson 74'
  • yellowcard Jack Duncan 90'+5'
Australian A-League Gameweek 3
Nov 3, 2024 5.00am
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT AAMI Park
  • Daniel Arzani 69' goal
  • Daniel Arzani 69' goal
  • Reno Piscopo 75' goal
  • Reno Piscopo 75' goal
  • Jason Geria 82' yellowcard
  • Jason Geria 82' yellowcard
  • goal Valere Germain 51'
  • goal Valere Germain 51'
Australian A-League Gameweek 16
Feb 10, 2024 6.30am
0
1
HT : 0 2
FT Marvel Stadium
  • goal Jake Hollman 21'
  • goal Jake Hollman 21'
  • yellowcard Tomislav Uskok 35'
  • yellowcard Tomislav Uskok 35'
  • yellowcard Raphael Borges Rodrigues 58'
  • yellowcard Raphael Borges Rodrigues 58'
  • yellowcard Filip Kurto 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Filip Kurto 90'+3'
Australian A-League Gameweek 5
Nov 24, 2023 8.45am
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)
  • Jonathan Aspropotamitis 7' yellowcard
  • Matthew Millar 12' goal
  • Ulises Davila 43' yellowcard
  • Mile Sterjovski 72' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Damien Da Silva 42'
  • yellowcard Adama Traore 53'
  • redcard Adama Traore 62'
  • yellowcard Daniel Arzani 66'
  • goal Yianni Nicolaou 90'+5' (OG)
Australian A-League Gameweek 25
Apr 23, 2023 6.00am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT AAMI Park
  • Fernando Romero 3' goal
  • Lleyton Brooks 90'+4' goal
  • goal Tomislav Uskok 66'