Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 43.26%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.