Australian A-League Gameweek 25
Victory
Apr 17, 2026 10.35am
2
2
HT : 2 1
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Newcastle Jets
  • Charles Nduka 31' goal
  • Charles Nduka 34' goal
  • Matthew Grimaldi 65' yellowcard
  • Louis D'Arrigo 82' yellowcard
  • Clarismario 82' yellowcard
  • goal Eli Adams 19'
  • yellowcard Xavier Bertoncello 57'
  • yellowcard Ben Gibson 70'
  • yellowcard Alex Nunes 81'
  • yellowcard Eli Adams 89'

Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 6.00am
Auckland FC 2 - 2 Victory
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Nikolaos Vergos

Newcastle Jets

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 8.00am
Newcastle Jets 1 - 1 Adelaide United
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Clayton Taylor

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.3%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 20.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result

Melbourne Victory 47.3% ▲ (+1.74)
Draw 20.78% ▼ (-0.74)
Newcastle Jets 31.92% ▼ (-1.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

64.44% ▲ (+1.92)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.12% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 1.5 14.88% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 2.5 66.01% ▲ (+0.46)
Under 2.5 33.99% ▼ (-0.45)
Over 3.5 44.56% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 3.5 55.44% ▼ (-0.27)
Over 4.5 28.97% ▲ (+0.63)
Under 4.5 71.03% ▼ (-0.63)

First Half Winner

Melbourne Victory 44.56% ▲ (+7.39)
Draw 34.32% ▼ (-3.44)
Newcastle Jets 21.12% ▼ (-3.94)

Team To Score First

Melbourne Victory 60.32% ▲ (+4.46)
No Goal 3.37% ▼ (-0.03)
Newcastle Jets 36.31% ▼ (-4.43)

Corners

Over 8 72.1% ▼ (-0.35)
Equal 8 9.6% ▲ (+0.41)
Under 8 18.3% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 9 61.02% ▼ (-0.84)
Equal 9 11.07% ▲ (+0.50)
Under 9 27.9% ▲ (+0.34)
Over 10.5 49.41% ▼ (-1.32)
Under 10.5 50.59% ▲ (+1.32)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 1.5 52.69% ▲ (+1.25)
Under 1.5 47.31% ▼ (-1.25)
Over 2.5 28.34% ▲ (+1.33)
Under 2.5 71.66% ▼ (-1.33)
Over 3.5 12.76% ▲ (+0.95)
Under 3.5 87.24% ▼ (-0.96)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5 68.28% ▼ (-1.52)
Under 0.5 31.72% ▲ (+1.52)
Over 1.5 39.56% ▼ (-1.05)
Under 1.5 60.44% ▲ (+1.05)
Over 2.5 17.74% ▼ (-0.77)
Under 2.5 82.26% ▲ (+0.77)
Over 3.5 6.72% ▼ (-0.42)
Under 3.5 93.28% ▲ (+0.41)

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 47.3%
Draw 20.79%
Newcastle Jets 31.93%
Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 8.82% ▲ (+0.08)
1-0 @ 6.35% ▼ (-0.07)
2-0 @ 5.99% ▲ (+0.30)
3-1 @ 5.65% ▲ (+0.04)
3-2 @ 4.46% ▲ (+0.16)
3-0 @ 3.55% ▲ (+0.20)
Other @ 12.48% ▲ (+1.06)
Total : 47.3%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.07% ▼ (-0.32)
2-2 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.30)
0-0 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.92% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.28% ▼ (-0.10)
Total : 20.79%
Newcastle Jets
1-2 @ 7.18% ▲ (+0.02)
0-1 @ 5.18% ▼ (-0.27)
0-2 @ 4.03% ▼ (-0.17)
1-3 @ 3.8% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 3.39% ▼ (-0.15)
0-3 @ 1.91% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 6.44% ▼ (-0.31)
Total : 31.93%

Head to Head

Australian A-League
Newcastle Jets
Oct 24, 2025 9.35am
5
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Victory
Australian A-League Gameweek 29
Victory
May 4, 2025 8.00am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Newcastle Jets
  • Kasey Bos 47' goal
  • Jordi Valadon 67' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kota Mizunuma 60'
  • goal Clayton Taylor 83'
Australian A-League Gameweek 18
Newcastle Jets
Feb 8, 2025 6.00am
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT McDonald Jones Stadium
Victory
  • Mark Natta 21' yellowcard
  • Mark Natta 21' yellowcard
  • Thomas Aquilina 33' goal
  • Lachlan Bayliss 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Lachlan Bayliss 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Lachlan Rose 54' goal
  • Kosta Grozos 90'+9' goal
  • Kosta Grozos 90'+9' goal
  • Clayton Taylor 90'+14' goal
  • Clayton Taylor 90'+14' goal
  • Lachlan Rose 90'+20' goal
  • Lachlan Rose 90'+20' goal
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 44'
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 44'
  • yellowcard Adama Traore 57'
  • yellowcard Adama Traore 57'
  • yellowcard Mitchell Langerak 82'
  • yellowcard Mitchell Langerak 82'
Australian A-League Gameweek 15
Newcastle Jets
Feb 3, 2024 7.00am
1
1
HT : 0 2
FT McDonald Jones Stadium
Victory
  • Apostolos Stamatelopoulos 88' goal
  • Apostolos Stamatelopoulos 88' goal
  • goal Roderick Miranda 20'
  • goal Roderick Miranda 20'
  • yellowcard Damien Da Silva 31'
  • yellowcard Damien Da Silva 31'
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 87'
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 87'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 90'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 90'
Australian A-League Gameweek 2
Victory
Oct 29, 2023 6.00am
5
3
HT : 4 1
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Newcastle Jets
  • Bruno Fornaroli 8' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 31' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 40' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 45'+3' goal
  • Nishan Velupillay 55' goal
  • goal Mark Natta 6'
  • yellowcard Carl Jenkinson 27'
  • goal Clayton Taylor 49'
  • yellowcard Trent Buhagiar 58'
  • goal Clayton Taylor 74'
Australian A-League Gameweek 16
Newcastle Jets
Feb 12, 2023 4.00am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT McDonald Jones Stadium
Victory
  • Beka Mikeltadze 37' goal
  • Kosta Grozos 58' goal
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 51'

Form Data

Auckland FC 2 - 2 Victory
Victory 0 - 1 Wellington
Victory 4 - 1 Central Coast
Victory 4 - 1 Macarthur
Sydney FC 2 - 2 Victory
Victory 1 - 1 Adelaide United
Newcastle Jets 1 - 1 Adelaide United
Macarthur 3 - 2 Newcastle Jets
Sydney FC 1 - 2 Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets 1 - 2 Auckland FC
Newcastle Jets 2 - 1 Western Sydney
Central Coast 0 - 0 Newcastle Jets