Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.19%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.