Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 41.16%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 3-1 (5.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.