Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (7.77%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.