Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 67.99%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 13.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 67.99% | 18.13% | 13.88% |
| Both teams to score 55.15% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.27% | 36.72% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.11% | 58.89% |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.11% | 9.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.24% | 32.75% |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.2% | 38.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.47% | 75.53% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-0 @ 10.26% 2-1 @ 9.72% 1-0 @ 8.87% 3-0 @ 7.92% 3-1 @ 7.5% 4-0 @ 4.59% 4-1 @ 4.34% 3-2 @ 3.55% 5-0 @ 2.12% 4-2 @ 2.06% 5-1 @ 2.01% 5-2 @ 0.95% Other @ 4.08% Total : 67.98% | 1-1 @ 8.4% 2-2 @ 4.6% 0-0 @ 3.83% 3-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 0.17% Total : 18.13% | 1-2 @ 3.98% 0-1 @ 3.63% 0-2 @ 1.72% 2-3 @ 1.45% 1-3 @ 1.26% Other @ 1.84% Total : 13.88% |