Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.68%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 34.75% | 24.1% | 41.14% |
| Both teams to score 60.73% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.31% | 41.68% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.91% | 64.08% |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.34% | 23.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.23% | 57.77% |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.55% | 20.45% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.09% | 52.91% |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 7.98% 1-0 @ 6.97% 2-0 @ 5.03% 3-1 @ 3.83% 3-2 @ 3.04% 3-0 @ 2.41% 4-1 @ 1.38% 4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 3.01% Total : 34.76% | 1-1 @ 11.06% 2-2 @ 6.33% 0-0 @ 4.84% 3-3 @ 1.61% Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.09% | 1-2 @ 8.79% 0-1 @ 7.68% 0-2 @ 6.1% 1-3 @ 4.65% 2-3 @ 3.35% 0-3 @ 3.23% 1-4 @ 1.84% 2-4 @ 1.33% 0-4 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.91% Total : 41.14% |