Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 78.39%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 6.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.92%) and 3-0 (12.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.94%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 0-1 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uzbekistan would win this match.

Result
Uzbekistan	Draw	Hong Kong
78.39% ( -0.21)	15.24% ( 0.16)	6.37% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 35.36% (

-0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.26% (

-0.53)

46.73% (

0.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31% (

-0.5)

69% (

0.5)

Uzbekistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.08% (

-0.19)

9.92% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.15% (

-0.43)

32.85% (

0.44)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

39.26% (

-0.21)

60.74% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

8.97% (

-0.1)

91.02% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Uzbekistan 78.37%

Hong Kong 6.37%

Draw 15.24%

Uzbekistan	Draw	Hong Kong
2-0 @ 16.08% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 13.92% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 12.38% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 3.31% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.3% Total : 78.37%	1-1 @ 6.94% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 2% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.28% Total : 15.24%	0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 1.73% Other @ 1.63% Total : 6.37%