Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 72.2%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 9.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15%) and 3-0 (10.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that United Arab Emirates would win this match.