Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 60.39%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 16.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saudi Arabia would win this match.