Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 51.59%. A draw had a probability of 26.42% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 21.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.27%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%) , while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.