Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventud win with a probability of 47.8%. A draw had a probability of 28.36% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventud win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.45%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.