Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 52.61%. A draw has a probability of 26.6% and a win for Defensor Sporting has a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it is 0-1 (8.33%).