Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 52.61%. A draw has a probability of 26.6% and a win for Defensor Sporting has a probability of 20.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it is 0-1 (8.33%).

Result
Penarol	Draw	Defensor Sporting
52.61% ( -0.26)	26.61% ( 0.19)	20.78% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 42.73% (

-0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.77% (

-0.56)

60.23% (

0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.59% (

-0.42)

80.41% (

0.43)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.9% (

-0.35)

23.1% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.05% (

-0.52)

56.95% (

0.52)

Defensor Sporting Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.56% (

-0.25)

44.43% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.52% (

-0.2)

80.48% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Penarol 52.61%

Defensor Sporting 20.78%

Draw 26.6%

Penarol	Draw	Defensor Sporting
1-0 @ 15.04% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.97% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.52% Total : 52.61%	1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.6%	0-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 0.9% Total : 20.78%