Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 45.61%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 26.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.24%) and 1-2 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.