Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 45.43%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 26.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9%) and 1-2 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.