Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 47.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.02% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%) , while for a Mantova win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.