Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juve Stabia win with a probability of 43.45%. A draw had a probability of 31.27% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 25.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juve Stabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.04%) , while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.