Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 36.79%. A win for Calcio Padova had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 30.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Calcio Padova win was 1-0 (11.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.