Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Calcio Padova win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Calcio Padova win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (10.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.