Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudtirol win with a probability of 36.34%. A win for Bari had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 31.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudtirol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.17%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Bari win was 1-0 (13.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.