Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 36.83%. A win for Bari had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 29.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Bari win was 1-0 (11.88%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.