Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 42.7%. A draw had a probability of 30.18% and a win for Bari had a probability of 27.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.49%) and 1-2 (8.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%) , while for a Bari win it was 1-0 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.