Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 0-1 (10.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.