Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for Avellino had a probability of 33.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Avellino win was 0-1 (9.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.