Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 43.71%. A win for Calcio Padova had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Calcio Padova win was 1-0 (9.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.