Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 48.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.98% and a win for Carrarese had a probability of 25.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%) , while for a Carrarese win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result
Monza	Draw	Carrarese
48.65% ( -0.43)	25.98% ( 0.02)	25.37% ( 0.42)

Both teams to score 49.26% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.75% (

0.23)

54.25% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.35% (

0.2)

75.64% (

-0.19)

Monza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.68% (

-0.09)

22.32% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.21% (

-0.14)

55.79% (

0.14)

Carrarese Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.42% (

0.49)

36.58% (

-0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.63% (

0.49)

73.37% (

-0.49)

Score Analysis

Monza 48.65%

Carrarese 25.37%

Draw 25.97%

Monza	Draw	Carrarese
1-0 @ 12.24% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.01% Total : 48.65%	1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.86% Total : 25.97%	0-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.83% Total : 25.37%