Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 46.2%. A draw had a probability of 26.92% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 26.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%) , while for a Sudtirol win it was 0-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.