Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 44.3%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for Calcio Padova had a probability of 25.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-2 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.15%) , while for a Calcio Padova win it was 1-0 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.