Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.28%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.