Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 40.77%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.