Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 48.16%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Empoli win was 0-1 (7.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.