Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrarese win with a probability of 43.74%. A draw had a probability of 28.57% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 27.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrarese win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.53%) , while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.