Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 48.14%. A draw had a probability of 26.41% and a win for Carrarese had a probability of 25.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%) , while for a Carrarese win it was 0-1 (8.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.