Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrarese win with a probability of 36.23%. A win for Monza had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrarese win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (10.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.