Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 53.61%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Juve Stabia had a probability of 20.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%) , while for a Juve Stabia win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.