Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 38.1%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 33.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (9.74%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.