Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Carrarese had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 28.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Carrarese win was 1-0 (10.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.