Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 61.96%. A draw had a probability of 21.95% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 16.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (10.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%) , while for a Mantova win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.