Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 28.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Cesena win was 0-1 (9.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.