Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Cesena win was 1-0 (10.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.