Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 44.44%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Cesena win was 1-0 (8.88%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.