Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 9

Oct 9, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 1
Lecce

Smalling (6'), Dybala (48' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-1)

Espeto (39')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Lecce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Roma 1-2 Betis
Thursday, October 6 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lecce

All competitions

Last Game: Lecce 1-1 Cremonese
Sunday, October 2 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 64.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Lecce
64.72% ( 0.22)	21.57% ( -0.11)	13.7% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 43.37% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.84% (

0.21)

52.16% (

-0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.13% (

0.19)

73.87% (

-0.19)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.56% (

0.14)

15.44% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.71% (

0.27)

44.29% (

-0.27)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.28% (

-0.03)

48.72% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.25% (

-0.02)

83.75% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Roma 64.72%

Lecce 13.7%

Draw 21.57%

Roma	Draw	Lecce
1-0 @ 14.05% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 13.12% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.94% Total : 64.72%	1-1 @ 10.1% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.55% Total : 21.57%	0-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.71% Total : 13.7%