Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 37

May 18, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
3 - 1
AC Milan

Mancini (3'), Paredes (58'), Cristante (87')
Mancini (25'), Cristante (45'), Celik (61')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Felix (39')
Jimenez (62'), Tomori (90'), Tomori (90')
Gimenez (21'), Conceicao (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Last Game: Atalanta 2-1 Roma
Monday, May 12 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Bologna
Wednesday, May 14 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	AC Milan
46.28% ( 0.54)	24.83% ( 0.01)	28.89% ( -0.56)

Both teams to score 55.55% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.69% (

-0.35)

47.31% (

0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.46% (

-0.32)

69.53% (

0.32)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.5% (

0.09)

20.5% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.01% (

0.16)

52.99% (

-0.16)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.87% (

-0.57)

30.12% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.73% (

-0.69)

66.27% (

0.69)

Score Analysis

Roma 46.28%

AC Milan 28.89%

Draw 24.83%

Roma	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 46.28%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.83%	0-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.04% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.16% Total : 28.89%