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Serie A | Gameweek 27
Mar 19, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma logo

Lazio
1 - 0
Roma

Zaccagni (65')
Alberto (25'), Romagnoli (59'), Cancellieri (89'), Basic (90+2')
Marusic (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ibanez (8'), Cristante (71'), Mancini (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Rome Derby between Lazio and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AZ 2-1 Lazio
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-0 Roma
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Lazio 1-0 Roma

Both coaches have cited concerns about fatigue following their European exploits, but the two teams have had a similar workload in that regard. It may, therefore, be a cautious encounter decided by a single goal, and Lazio's ability to keep the back door shut could tip the balance in their favour. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.

Result
LazioDrawRoma
45.25% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 27.32% (0.094999999999999 0.09) 27.43% (-0.12 -0.12)
Both teams to score 47.04% (-0.343 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.09% (-0.401 -0.4)57.91% (0.40199999999999 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.39% (-0.316 -0.32)78.62% (0.31699999999999 0.32)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.48% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)25.52% (0.169 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.63% (-0.232 -0.23)60.37% (0.234 0.23)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.16% (-0.316 -0.32)36.84% (0.317 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.37% (-0.319 -0.32)73.63% (0.32000000000001 0.32)
Score Analysis
    Lazio 45.25%
    Roma 27.43%
    Draw 27.31%
LazioDrawRoma
1-0 @ 12.84% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 8.77% (0.049000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.76% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.99% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-1 @ 3.99% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.99% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.36% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.36% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 45.25%
1-1 @ 12.82% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 9.4% (0.142 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.37% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 27.31%
0-1 @ 9.39% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
1-2 @ 6.4% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.13% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.56% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.46% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 27.43%

How you voted: Lazio vs Roma

Lazio
53.1%
Draw
23.9%
Roma
23.0%
113
Head to Head
Nov 6, 2022 5pm
Mar 20, 2022 5pm
Roma
3-0
Lazio
Abraham (1', 22'), Pellegrini (40')
Karsdorp (48'), Mancini (53'), Zalewski (73'), Oliveira (78')

Pedro (43'), Patric (44'), Leiva (61')
Sep 26, 2021 5pm
Lazio
3-2
Roma
Milinkovic-Savic (10'), Pedro (19'), Anderson (63')
Leiva (25'), Cataldi (87')
Ibanez (41'), Veretout (69' pen.)
Patricio (11'), Cristante (45+2'), Vina (48'), Mourinho (61'), Veretout (87')
May 15, 2021 7.45pm
Roma
2-0
Lazio
Mkhitaryan (42'), Pedro (78')
Peres (16'), Santon (47')

Acerbi (23')
Acerbi (87')
Jan 15, 2021 7.45pm
Lazio
3-0
Roma
Immobile (14'), Alberto (23', 67')
Milinkovic-Savic (11'), Radu (20'), Acerbi (45+3'), Felipe (62'), Leiva (63')

Mancini (34'), Smalling (60'), Pedro (71'), Mkhitaryan (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Rams
@
49ers
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta15111338172134
2Napoli15102321101132
3Inter Milan1494134151931
4Fiorentina1494128101831
5Lazio15101430171331
6Juventus1569024101427
7AC Milan146442416822
8Bologna145722018222
9Udinese156271822-420
10Empoli154741415-119
11Roma154471821-316
12Torino154471620-416
13Parma153662125-415
14Genoa153661324-1115
15CagliariCagliari153571525-1014
16Lecce15348826-1813
17Como152671628-1212
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1540111837-1912
19Monza151771319-610
20VeneziaVenezia1523101327-149


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