Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.
Result | ||
Lazio | Draw | Roma |
45.25% ( 0.02) | 27.32% ( 0.09) | 27.43% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 47.04% ( -0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.09% ( -0.4) | 57.91% ( 0.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.39% ( -0.32) | 78.62% ( 0.32) |
Lazio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.48% ( -0.17) | 25.52% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.63% ( -0.23) | 60.37% ( 0.23) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.16% ( -0.32) | 36.84% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.37% ( -0.32) | 73.63% ( 0.32) |
Score Analysis |
Lazio | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 12.84% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 8.77% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.99% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.2% Total : 45.25% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.31% | 0-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.81% Total : 27.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 |
2 | Napoli | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 32 |
3 | Inter Milan | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 31 |
4 | Fiorentina | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 10 | 18 | 31 |
5 | Lazio | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 31 |
6 | Juventus | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 27 |
7 | AC Milan | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 22 |
8 | Bologna | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 22 |
9 | Udinese | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 20 |
10 | Empoli | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 19 |
11 | Roma | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 16 |
12 | Torino | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 16 |
13 | Parma | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 15 |
14 | Genoa | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 14 |
16 | Lecce | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 13 |
17 | Como | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 15 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 12 |
19 | Monza | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 10 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 9 |
> Serie A Full Table |